Zombie Mathematical Model: Slim Chances for Survival

By Zombie Hunter Sam


SCIENCE: When the zombies attack, it will lead to the collapse of civilization unless dealt with quickly and aggressively.

How long will civilization have in a zombie attack? A city with a population around 500,000 will have between three and eight days before irreversible catastrophe. This report is based on a well researched, though fictionalized outbreak of the reanimation of the dead. While an uprising of the dead is highly improbable, it remains that a highly contagious and infectious zombie cause could have similar results.

The report was written by several Mathematicians in Canada, notably Robert J. Smith?, an Austrailian who probably sang backup for ? and The Mysterians.  P. Munz, I. Hudea, J. Imad and R.J. Smith? When zombies attack!: Mathematical modelling of an outbreak of zombie infection (PDF)

The researchers chose “classic” slow-moving zombies as our opponents rather than the nimble, fast, and somewhat intelligent creatures portrayed in recent films. “While we are trying to be as broad as possible in modelling zombies – especially as there are many variables – we have decided not to consider these individuals,” the researchers said. This is a fatal flaw in the report, as contagious, “fast” zombies have a 100% chance of happening, over the highly improbably undead.

One should take note on the rising global consciousness of zombies tthrough fear, research, art (through film and literature) and popular culture.  Several keen readers and friends have forwarded me the document, and it has been written about on several blogs and has made the news, including the BBC.

Zombie Epidemiology

Science ponders ‘zombie attack’ (BBC)

Science Proves Zombies Will Kill Us All (Asylum.com)

Scientists claim ‘zombie attack’ would collapse civilization (Current.com)

Mathematical Model for Surviving a Zombie Attack (Wired)

These pieces of information, however, require further research and your immediate concern:

Patient accused of biting off doctor’s fingertip, which is similar to this zombie sighting in May 2009:  Zombie Bite in New Orleans.

Woman Sets Self On Fire In Mall

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Filed Under: Books · Science · Sightings · Simulation

21 million infected

  • 1 Brindy Aug 20, 2009 at 1:42 am

    I live in the UK and heard this on Radio 4’s Today programme the day before yesterday. They gave the subject at least 10 minutes, which I was frankly amazed, amused and appreciative of!

    I was wondering how long it would take you to pick it up. =)

  • 2 Sam Aug 20, 2009 at 2:36 am

    Thanks for reading, Brindy. Keep me posted on any “man-bites-man” stories from the UK.

  • 3 logan Aug 21, 2009 at 7:58 am

    When an outbreak happens, if we don’t contain it fast and orderly, it will spread beyond our control and civilization as we know it will crumble…”It’s the end of the world as we know it, it’s the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fiiiiiiiiine.” Contain it like they did in Quarantine, except it might haoppen out in the desert, so, the Quarantine method is worthless there..I wonder what the aftermath of “Quarantine” turned out to be…did they keep sending in biologist/marines that kept getting zombified? did it spread through the sewers, and infect all civilization? Who knows…..

  • 4 Joe Aug 22, 2009 at 2:23 pm

    Well i think that if the zombies will be slow like most
    “classic” zombie movies humans will have a better
    chance of surviving only thing they need is a flash light
    a good weapon on there said and they need to keep there
    eyes peeled.

  • 5 prophet Aug 23, 2009 at 2:05 am

    yeah my idea of a zombie is definitely the classic slow and stupid kind

  • 6 j09' Aug 27, 2009 at 12:41 pm

    it dont matter if its a fast or slow zombie, just be prepared and ready for whatever

  • 7 logan Aug 27, 2009 at 4:54 pm

    hahah, i have to find a news article for shcool and share it, and i found the ultimate one- lady sets herself on fire in mall..why did she do that?

  • 8 prophet Aug 30, 2009 at 1:39 am

    your right, j09. however fast or slow a zombie is, it’s still dangerous.

  • 9 michael Nov 5, 2009 at 3:53 am

    Did anybody here ever plan for the “progressive” zombie theory.
    The one where the undead are fast at first, then as rigormortis sets in they slow down, and then speed back up, until they are rendered immobile from rotting

  • 10 Toofer010 Nov 6, 2009 at 9:30 am

    If zombies end up being very slow with no inteligence gain or anything like that all you need be is alert and you’ll be set. I mean really that easy you may not need much.

  • 11 josho123 Nov 6, 2009 at 12:36 pm

    yeah but if they are fast and dont lose stamina like humans do than half of america is screwed the other half with eventually die of hunger or something else

  • […] simulator. Pick a random survivor as yourself, and see how you do. Class 3 Outbreak Related Posts:Zombie Mathematical Model: Slim Chances for SurvivalEarly Apocalypse Survival MistakesUndead or Infected Zombies?Multi-Purpose Doom: Tactical Analysis […]

  • 13 bigragu14 Dec 10, 2009 at 1:08 pm

    ok i love zombie movies and all of that good stuff but them actually being real i have to say its a bunch of bull i mean i read all different kinds of stories about them theyre pretty convincing but not enough im not calling you guys crazy or liars im just saying im not convinced. Is there anything i can read or see that will change my mind?

  • 14 josho123 Dec 10, 2009 at 8:32 pm

    Well its not the fact that it will happen or is going to happen for sure this site is typically about preparing for the worst evan if you think its bull. but what if this does happen your not prepared what are u going to do. Also preparing for this can help you with other things not just zombies, but lets see if a the great depression happend but it was evan worse than the last one you dont have money nor food or guns and ammo stock piled to hunt you will starve.But us we have guns ammo and food that we were saving for the zombie apacolypse.

  • 15 carlos Jul 4, 2010 at 6:08 am

    I agree with joe, the classic zombies would be easier to eliminate but note that they might be quiter than the fast zombies wich gives them the element of surprise. either way that civilization would most likeley fall ’cause not many people would know what to do, and alot of people would keep panicking or maybe try to barricade themselves inside their house.

  • 16 PFC Unknown Jul 8, 2010 at 1:57 am

    @bigragu14 zombies may or may not happen, its a slim to none chance a zombpocolypse will happen, the reason i think most people on here “plan” for one isnt so much to plan for zombies but to plan for other natural disasters, tornados, hurricans, earthquaks, civil unrest, or even possibly foriegn invasion. being prepaird for a zombpocolypse is pretty much the same as prepairing for anything.

    welcome to the forum bigragu (figured id say this) and thank you for not jumping the gun and calling us nuts lol but now you know why we “plan” for zombies (i think with the rout the world goes in medical experimentation something close to a “zombpocolypse” will happen) but its just a thought.

    now to the topic at hand, either if they were slow/fast zombies you have to think about where majority of people live, in the cities. now take the 500,000 people living in close quarters or in a confined area, now add one zombie to the mix. that one zombie infects one or two, those infect four or eight, so on, so on. the fact that people live in close proximity to one another will cause the pandemic to spread like wild fire, then mass histeria strikes, people will panic trying to escape causing even more infections/death to the mix, after like projected above, a week the entire civilian infenstructer will collapse due to “one initial zombie” bite, whether slow or fast an entire city just got quarintined (SP) now we all know we love government responses, with media blackouts, cover ups etc etc. they will try to block of the city or try to run clean and sweeps of the city, but because the governments fashionable late arrival the 10-100 infected people (who were bit or wounded but didnt reanimate yet) has already escaped allowing the whole thing to start over, all because one slow/fast zombie.

    i will say the fast zombies will cause the infection to spread faster maybe even cutting the time frame down to several days, but the fact is that one zombie caused the pandemic to spread, the fault of this isnt because poor joe smoe didnt kill the zombie when he confronted it, but because majority of people chose to move in more confined area that houses thousands of others, if people lived further apart the infection would move slower and i would say depending how far the people are from one another would probably cause the infection to take hold over a series of months. so in the end if you think about this, our own human nature that drives us to be social (living with close proximity to each other) will be the cause of the pandemic and even our doom :)

  • 17 Ghosts343 Jul 12, 2010 at 4:59 pm

    well said PFC unkown well said

  • 18 MoMoney420 Aug 12, 2010 at 10:00 pm

    Exactly PFC Unknown, you hit the zed on the head. Ive read several “zombie survival guides” and various other books watched movies and played almost every zombie game out there. It goes without sayin that the higher the population the faster the virus if that is the cause will spread. However eventually once all people are killed or infected no place will truly be safe as the zeds will surely come lookin for some long pig in rural and remote places driven by pure instinct. Its like Zombie Hunter Sam says “BE PREPARED” Z-day is jus around the corner people…

    Aim for the Head…

  • […] civilians are distressing, and seem to coincide with a report by science’s R.J. Smith?. See Zombie Mathematical Model: Slim Chances for Survival for more […]

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  • 21 Tommis Apr 13, 2012 at 3:22 am

    Zombies aren’t the only thing ppl will have to worry about…other human to wanting gear u have…

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